Kahn's Escalation Ladder

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Subcrisis Maneuvering

  1. Ostensible Crisis
  2. Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures
  3. Solemn and Formal Declarations

Traditional Crises

Don't Rock the Boat Threshold

  1. Hardening of Positions -- Confrontation of Wills
  2. Show of Force
  3. Significant Mobilization
  4. "Legal" Harassment -- Retortions
  5. Harassing Acts of Violence
  6. Dramatic Military Confrontations

Intense Crises

Nuclear War is Unthinkable Threshold

  1. Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations
  2. Super-Ready Status
  3. Large Conventional War (or Actions)
  4. Large Compound Escalator
  5. Declaration of Limited Conventional War
  6. Barely Nuclear War
  7. Nuclear "Ultimatums"
  8. Limited Evaluations (20%)
  9. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
  10. "Justifiable" Counterforce Attack
  11. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade

Bizarre Crises

No Nuclear Use Threshold

  1. Local Nuclear War -- Exemplary
  2. Declaration of Limited Nuclear War
  3. Local Nuclear War -- Military
  4. Unusual, Provocative and Significant Countermeasures
  5. Evacuation (70%)

Exemplary Central Attacks

Central Sanctuary Threshold

  1. Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior
  2. Exemplary Attack on Military
  3. Exemplary Attacks Against Property
  4. Exemplary Attacks on Population
  5. Complete Evacuation (95%)
  6. Reciprocal Reprisals

Military Central Wars

Central War Threshold

  1. Formal Declaration of "General" War
  2. Slow-Motion Counter-"Property" War
  3. Slow-Motion Counterforce War
  4. Constrained Force-Reduction Salvo
  5. Constrained Disarming Attack
  6. Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack
  7. Unmodified Counterforce Attack

Civilian Central Wars

City Targeting Threshold

  1. Slow-Motion Countercity war
  2. Countervalue Salvo
  3. Augmented Disarming Attack
  4. Civilian Devastation Attack
  5. Controlled General War
  6. Spasm/Insensate War