Difference between revisions of "Kahn's Escalation Ladder"

Revision as of 17:29, 24 March 2014

Subcrisis Maneuvering

1. Ostensible Crisis
2. Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures Senkaku Islands Dispute
3. Solemn and Formal Declarations

Traditional Crises

Don't Rock the Boat Threshold

4. Hardening of Positions -- Confrontation of Wills
5. Show of Force
6. Significant Mobilization
7. "Legal" Harassment -- Retortions
8. Harassing Acts of Violence
9. Dramatic Military Confrontations

Intense Crises

Nuclear War is Unthinkable Threshold

10. Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations
11. Super-Ready Status Flashpoint: Ukraine 2014
12. Large Conventional War (or Actions)
13. Large Compound Escalator
14. Declaration of Limited Conventional War
15. Barely Nuclear War
16. Nuclear "Ultimatums"
17. Limited Evaluations (20%)
18. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
19. "Justifiable" Counterforce Attack
20. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade

Bizarre Crises

No Nuclear Use Threshold

21. Local Nuclear War -- Exemplary
22. Declaration of Limited Nuclear War
23. Local Nuclear War -- Military
24. Unusual, Provocative and Significant Countermeasures
25. Evacuation (70%)

Exemplary Central Attacks

Central Sanctuary Threshold

26. Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior
27. Exemplary Attack on Military
28. Exemplary Attacks Against Property
29. Exemplary Attacks on Population
30. Complete Evacuation (95%)
31. Reciprocal Reprisals

Military Central Wars

Central War Threshold

32. Formal Declaration of "General" War
33. Slow-Motion Counter-"Property" War
34. Slow-Motion Counterforce War
35. Constrained Force-Reduction Salvo
36. Constrained Disarming Attack
37. Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack
38. Unmodified Counterforce Attack

Civilian Central Wars

City Targeting Threshold

39. Slow-Motion Countercity war
40. Countervalue Salvo
41. Augmented Disarming Attack
42. Civilian Devastation Attack
43. Controlled General War
44. Spasm/Insensate War